The dollar exchange rate forecast for July 2017, contrary to expert expectations, is not so optimistic for the American currency.
The dollar began its gradual decline in June, and is likely to continue to decline with small blips until the end of the month.
Indicative forecasts are as follows:
the highest point of the rate will be 56 rubles per unit;
the lowest point of the rate is 53 rubles per dollar;
expected fluctuations on average will be around the point of 54.4 rubles per dollar.
Leading world experts banking organizations The USA foreshadowed the national currency rapid growth, which will be supported by the situation on the oil market. However, expectations did not materialize: neither the increase in oil production nor the introduction of new directions into the country’s policy became an incentive for growth for the dollar.
What will affect the dollar exchange rate in July?
Perhaps the most negative impact has recently been on the situation in the oil market. The “disruptive” policy of the United States, although it produced results, did not succeed in completely breaking oil prices.
Let us remember that recently it has been falling due to instability in the oil production market. The United States, contrary to general expectations, did not reduce, but increased the pace of oil production, tapping new shale deposits and increasing the volume of raw materials in the country and the volume of exports.
This policy allowed the dollar to gain in price, and oil, accordingly, made it cheaper. However, already in June it became known that OPEC countries did not intend to stop reducing oil production.
This was confirmed when the cartel countries extended their agreement for another nine months. Thus, the oil market has a chance that commodity prices will soon balance.
In turn, the dollar began to decline due to ineffective oil production policies. Another factor, which, however, is not recognized by all experts, is the presidency of Donald Trump.
Some analysts see in the new US president a kind of breath of fresh air and a chance for positive changes in the country, others are not so positive about Trump and his actions.
Moreover, many believe that the US President “will not last” in his post until the new elections, going into the shadows prematurely. In this case, world markets will be quite agitated, and the dollar will fall to critical levels.
Constantly monitors US Dollar to Russian Ruble exchange rate. Below is a report on changes in the US Dollar exchange rate during July 2017. You will find information such as US dollar value for every day in July 2017, minimum, maximum and average cost US dollar. US Dollar Price is the market weighted average (for fiat currencies the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is given).
US Dollar exchange rate chart for July 2017
Below is US dollar exchange rate chart for every day for July 2017. average price US dollar calculated as a weighted average value of the US dollar on the market. For national currencies, the graph shows the exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
US Dollar exchange rate table in July 2017
US Dollar exchange rate table in July 2017 includes the US Dollar rate for each day and changes in the US Dollar rate. The change in currency value is calculated in absolute terms, that is change in the price of the US dollar in rubles, and in relative values, that is change in the value of the US dollar in percent.
| Day months | Number of units | Well US dollar | Change of course US dollar |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUB | % | |||
| July 1, 2017 | 1 USD | 59.386200 RUB | – | – | July 4, 2017 | 1 USD | 58.969500 RUB | −0.4167 | −0.7% |
| July 5, 2017 | 1 USD | 59.229500 RUB | +0.26 | +0.44% | July 6, 2017 | 1 USD | 59.578700 RUB | +0.3492 | +0.59% |
| July 7, 2017 | 1 USD | 60.242600 RUB | +0.6639 | +1.11% | July 8, 2017 | 1 USD | 60.379200 RUB | +0.1366 | +0.23% |
| July 11, 2017 | 1 USD | 60.301400 RUB | −0.0778 | −0.13% | July 12, 2017 | 1 USD | 60.739700 RUB | +0.4383 | +0.73% |
| July 13, 2017 | 1 USD | 60.622700 RUB | −0.117 | −0.19% | July 14, 2017 | 1 USD | 60.183600 RUB | −0.4391 | −0.72% |
| July 15, 2017 | 1 USD | 59.880600 RUB | −0.303 | −0.5% | July 18, 2017 | 1 USD | 59.065700 RUB | −0.8149 | −1.36% |
| July 19, 2017 | 1 USD | 59.370500 RUB | +0.3048 | +0.52% | July 20, 2017 | 1 USD | 59.241800 RUB | −0.1287 | −0.22% |
| July 21, 2017 | 1 USD | 59.082300 RUB | −0.1595 | −0.27% | July 22, 2017 | 1 USD | 58.932500 RUB | −0.1498 | −0.25% |
| July 25, 2017 | 1 USD | 59.657200 RUB | +0.7247 | +1.23% | July 26, 2017 | 1 USD | 59.818500 RUB | +0.1613 | +0.27% |
| July 27, 2017 | 1 USD | 59.910200 RUB | +0.0917 | +0.15% | July 28, 2017 | 1 USD | 59.410200 RUB | −0.5 | −0.83% |
| July 29, 2017 | 1 USD | 59.543600 RUB | +0.1334 | +0.22% |
Minimum, maximum and average exchange rates of the US dollar in July 2017
The table shows minimum, maximum and average exchange rate of the US dollar in rubles in July 2017. For the minimum and maximum rates, the date on which this rate fell is indicated.
In July 2017 US dollar value in rubles varied in the range from 58.9325 RUB to 60.7397 RUB with an average value of 59.6927 RUB. At the same time, the minimum average daily price per US dollar was recorded on July 22 (58.9325 RUB), maximum cost US dollar in July 2017 dated July 12 and amounted to 60.7397 RUB. Hesitation US dollar exchange rate within a month 1.8072 RUB.
Unstable situation in modern economy forces many of our compatriots to become seriously nervous and think about their future. One of the most important indicators The economy is considered, of course, by the ratio of the dollar and the ruble. Many analysts and experts are trying to make forecasts regarding the dollar in the coming years, but it is too early to talk about exact results for this long term in advance. However, approximate conclusions and assumptions can be made; we will discuss them further in this article.
What's happening to the dollar in recent days?
The exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble has now become one of the most important issues for the Russian people. Lately, right up to the beginning of two thousand and sixteen, the dollar had only been rising, thanks to which many were confident in the advisability of buying it, even on WebMoney; but if we talk about the beginning of 2016, there was a slight decline and strengthening of the ruble, so everything is not so clear.
Possible devaluation in 2017
Actions Central Bank in 2017, they do not rule out a possible devaluation of the ruble. Experts also emphasize that the ruble depends a lot on external factors.
Analysts say that the weakening of the ruble is also largely due to the decrease among the majority of Russian people. free funds and deposits. Turmoil became one of the main reasons for destabilization foreign exchange market last year two thousand and fifteen.
Oil market trend
If the price of oil remains around forty dollars per barrel, and the recession in Russia, according to analysts, will last until 2017, then by July 2017 the dollar may be more than 75 rubles, and in the future it will rise to eighty rubles or more - however , we already saw similar numbers last year, and it’s difficult to surprise with them.
According to the Ministry's forecasts economic development analysts, if there is fifty-five dollars per barrel of oil, there is a chance to restore investment. This budget revenue will be transferred practically unchanged. If it's at forty dollars a barrel, then we'll have to be more careful to cut costs as another way to cover the revenue shortfall. In this case, there is a risk of a further market collapse, which will lead to further devaluation of the ruble.
China
The economy in China is the largest buyer in the market. The rate of GDP growth will decline and this will affect oil prices, experts say. Thus, the ruble will continue to lose its value.
Today, oil price growth is between $45 and $65 per barrel, but when the crisis in China continues to grow, the cost could rise quickly.
Expected that Russia's GDP- more than two trillion rubles in 2016, and two and a half trillion rubles in 2017 based on the difference between the forecast for gross internal product past in a new scenario, additional income should be more than one trillion rubles, the reserve should be about five hundred billion rubles at the end of 2017.
Projects to increase profitability
There are several ways to plug a hole in your emergency fund:
- cut costs;
- borrow savings from the National Welfare Fund;
- include cash financing.
Thus, cost reduction is the best option. Based on the new project, it is necessary to reduce expenses in 2016 by approximately another 200 billion, and in 2017 - by about another trillion rubles.
General conclusions
As of the indicated date - July 2017 - one of the most optimistic is, perhaps, to consider the dollar exchange rate to be approximately 70-80 rubles. But this is only if many unfavorable events can be avoided. For example, another factor in the devaluation of the Russian currency may be an increase in the range of sanctions from the West. As a result, the dollar may rise to one hundred rubles.
Some even admit that the dollar will “grow” to 200 rubles or more, but given the current openness of the economy and trade, in particular via the Internet, this is still quite unlikely. It is unlikely that we should expect such a crisis as our country has already experienced.
With higher oil prices, the ruble may also strengthen.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for July 2017 in Russia - will the USD fall and the ruble strengthen? What is the objective reality of what is happening, is it worth buying the dollar now?
The exchange rate of the national currency is, in fact, a reflection of the strength of the economy. Even if we ignore the devaluation of 1998, the ruble is 65 units weaker than the dollar. The Russian economy is 65 units weaker than the US economy.
Dollar exchange rate forecast: What will the dollar exchange rate be in July 2017 - expert forecast, analytics
If we compare other indicators, Russia is everywhere much weaker than the United States - GDP per capita (RF - 48th place, USA - 9th), volume of GDP (RF 3565 versus 17419 for the USA), etc. If we compare the Russian economy with the economies of NATO countries, it turns out that less than 3% compete with 70%. Import substitution in Russia is catastrophically low - about 20-30%; in fact, we produce only part of the textiles and food products.
It is clear that during political squabbles, more strong countries the West, through economic sanctions they can easily push through our national currency. Now, while the “lost” Buryats and “dismissed” GRU special forces are waging war on foreign territory, and the government, instead of saving production, is investing money in the military-industrial complex, which will not bring any added value, at the dollar exchange rate for July 2017 forecast in Russia there can be no positive prognosis. The Minsk agreements were only able to weaken the conflict, but they cannot stop it - the war is going on, sanctions are not being lifted, business in Russia is regressing.
The best scenario for the ruble is an end to the conflict in Ukraine, strengthening the Minsk agreements and negotiations that will ease the wave of sanctions. Then we can talk about a more or less stable dollar exchange rate of 55-58 rubles. But you need to understand that even in this situation, expert forecasts are far from rosy - the economy is driven below the plinth, it needs to be raised by the whole country. Under the USSR, the share of GDP in the world economy reached 11% - and this is thanks to the cult of labor. Today there is no work left - just leavened patriotism, a St. George's ribbon and the shaking of a rusty weapon.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for July 2017: what will happen to the dollar
According to the forecast, the dollar exchange rate has three points: the top – 56 rubles per dollar, the middle – 54.5, the bottom – 53. Analysts predict a strengthening of the ruble exchange rate.
According to statements made by leading experts of world banking organizations in the USA and Great Britain, the dollar will strengthen in 2017. But it should be noted that this is a preliminary forecast and you need to carefully monitor statistical and economic indicators.
The stable position of the ruble is particularly influenced by external investments, as well as economic situation in Russia. It should be noted that forecasts for changes in exchange rates are made constantly, but indicators often change due to unforeseen circumstances, for example, the introduction of unplanned sanctions from European countries.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for July 2017: With a further increase in oil prices, the dollar exchange rate will drop to 58.82 rubles
On Friday, trading on the Moscow Exchange opened with a decline in the dollar and euro. The ruble continued to win back losses against the backdrop of no decline in oil prices and an overdue correction after a six-day weakening. He received additional support taxable period, which peaks on June 26. The dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.92%, to 59.38 rubles, the euro exchange rate - by 0.61%, to 66.47 rubles.
On Monday, at trading in Asia, a barrel of Brent is trading at $46.04 (+0.82%). Due to the morning increase in oil prices since the opening of the Moscow Exchange, we should expect the ruble to strengthen against the dollar and euro.
On this moment traders regard the rise in oil prices as a classic correction after the price collapse last week. It will be possible to talk about a change in trend at the close trading session on Monday above $46.60 per barrel. With a further increase in oil prices, the dollar exchange rate will reach 58.82 rubles. Closing the day below 58.82 rubles. will put an end to further weakening of the ruble.
Summer is just around the corner, many traders are going on vacation, and everyone is interested in the pressing question “A what will happen to the ruble this summer? Officials' forecasts are optimistic - there will be no significant depreciation of the exchange rate, however, given the stability of the oil market. Nevertheless, financial analysts they say that the risks for the Russian economy are still high.
So, dangers for the ruble/dollar exchange rate for the summer of 2017.
1. Analysts versus the government: whose forecast is more accurate
According to representatives Russian government forecast in 2017 economic indicators Russia will improve - after a protracted recession, GDP will grow by 1-2%, income growth will resume, and inflation will slow down to 4-4.5%.
However, many analysts doubt such estimates, focusing on the continuing increase in Russian economy problems are the lack of structural reforms, without which there will be zero growth in the medium term, as well as capital outflow, which deprives the economy of resources for development.
According to the latest data, capital outflow in 2017 accelerated by 6% compared to last year. Decline discount rate The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has made the domestic market no longer so attractive for speculative capital. It is worth noting that these figures are significantly ahead of government forecasts. At the same time, for payment external debt spent $700 million less than last year.
If capital outflow continues at this rate, the ruble exchange rate may weaken against the dollar by 1-2 rubles this summer.
In addition, it is worth considering that the Fed will continue to increase interest rate, which will also play against the ruble.
2. Oil is still the No. 1 factor for the ruble
Despite the fact that the speculative factor sometimes allows the ruble to “break away” from the dynamics of the oil market, it still remains the most significant factor in shaping the exchange rate of the Russian currency.
Bank of Russia experts, in the short term, do not rule out a reduction in oil prices to the area of 40-45 dollars per barrel. Despite positive signals about the implementation of the OPEC+ agreement on the “freeze” of production volumes, as well as the widely announced statement by Russia and Saudi Arabia on the need to extend the agreement for another 9 months, the balance in the oil market is under threat.
Analysts consider the main threat to be an increase in oil exports from the United States, which will compensate for the reduction in supplies from Russia and OPEC countries. Let us recall that US President Donald Trump intends to increase production volumes in the Gulf of Mexico, and also plans to return to the development of oil projects on the Arctic shelf.
Negotiations ahead for oil exporters on the continuation of the OPEC+ agreement, and they can hardly be called simple. Their results will depend on many factors, including increased competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which will affect the dynamics of oil prices.
It should be understood that in such conditions the oil market will remain high volatility, which has a bad effect on the Russian currency. In addition, the strengthening of the ruble at low oil prices poses a threat to economic development. The authorities have repeatedly stated that they will look for market instruments to match the ruble exchange rate with oil prices, therefore With cheap raw materials, you shouldn’t count on an expensive ruble.
3. The mayor is betting on dollar growth
Forecasts from the Ministry of Economic Development suggest a rapid rise in the dollar exchange rate, and two options are being considered.
The base forecast is based on oil prices remaining above $50/barrel. In this case, the dollar exchange rate will reach 62 rubles. At the same time, experts from the Ministry of Economic Development exclude sharp fluctuations in currency quotes.
The negative forecast takes into account the seasonal drop in prices for “black gold” in the summer, which will result in a deterioration in the balance of payments. This trend will lead to the devaluation of the ruble to 68 rubles/dollar.
The weakening of the ruble will have positive consequences for the economy, experts emphasize. In addition, the government will be able to resolve the issue of financing the expenditure side of the budget.
4. Ruble devaluation is imminent
A moderate ruble will solve several issues at once, experts say. Export-oriented companies will receive additional support, which will become a new growth driver for the economy. As a result, domestic companies will gain a new competitive advantage in international markets.
Another painful issue for the Russian government is reducing the budget deficit. The weakening of the ruble will increase revenues from hydrocarbon exports, which will become alternative source to finance the budget deficit. In this case, the government will be able to fully fulfill social obligations without increasing the volume of debt.