Official dollar and euro exchange rates for today, May 6, 2018, Central Bank of the Russian Federation
Established by the Bank of Russia official rate the dollar as of May 6, 2018 fell by 28.5 kopecks to 63.2012 rubles. The euro exchange rate fell by almost 49 kopecks to 75.6392 rubles.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week 2018 in Russia: expert opinion
According to Finam experts, in relation to the balance of payments there is a risk of an outflow of foreign capital due to the increasing pressure of sanctions on Russian organizations, but unlike the 2014 crisis, avalanche-like stress can be avoided thanks to persistently high oil prices and the expansion of existing Bank of Russia mechanisms.
Experts note that in the current conditions Russia can improve its trade balance surplus. At the same time, against the background of the expected low probability of further escalation of the situation, the total volume of private capital outflow could reach $55 billion ($40 billion earlier in 2018).
Analysts emphasize that in such conditions, on average, the ruble exchange rate may accelerate by 3-5%.
“In this context, the USD/RUB exchange rate at the end of 2018 may shift to the range of 62.0-63.5 against our forecast at 60.0,” experts note.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for the month, May 2018
Experts predict that the US dollar exchange rate in May 2018 will be subject to strong fluctuations. This is not surprising, because today the American currency is demonstrating its new record. Thus, the dollar rose in price by 1.09 rubles and reached 64.04 Russian rubles. The jump occurred for the first time since April 11, as evidenced by trading data on the Moscow Exchange.
The European currency, at the same time, is valued at 76.67 rubles per euro. It also showed growth, increasing by 60 kopecks.
Factors that continue to depreciate the Russian ruble
Financial analysts attribute the weakening position of the Russian ruble to a further fall in world oil prices. This is in anticipation of the publication of weekly data on inventory hydrocarbons in the United States. If the same trend continues, then Russian ruble will continue to depreciate in May.
The latest data shows the price of North Sea Brent crude, due for delivery in July, fell 0.6%. Its current price is $72.7 per barrel, reports the C-ib portal. June WTI oil futures also fell 0.1% to settle at $67.19 per barrel.
The influence of foreign policy relations on the exchange rate of the national currency
Alpari senior analyst Anna Bodrova previously noted that the weakening of the ruble exchange rate will be felt in the second half current year. “Foreign policy relations are a rather bright and usually unexpected catalyst for the foreign exchange market of any country,” the analyst believes.
Anna Bodrova believes that sharp currency fluctuations can only happen if the Donald Trump administration wants to “tighten the screws” in Russian-American relations. The US dollar exchange rate will not increase much until the end of May, the expert believes.
Forecast for the US dollar exchange rate until the end of 2018
May of this year may not demonstrate significant changes in the exchange rate of the currency basket, but growth is inevitable until the end of 2018. Analysts believe that much will depend on bonds federal loan. If sanctions against Russia are tightened, then government securities will lose attractiveness on the stock exchange. The budget will not receive enough money, and the exchange rate of the Russian ruble will fall again. At this rate, by the end of this year the US dollar exchange rate may reach 75 rubles.
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Published 05/11/18 08:11The official dollar exchange rate established by the Bank of Russia as of May 11, 2018 is 62.52 rubles, the euro exchange rate for today is 74.17 rubles.
The dollar exchange rate at Sberbank today is set at 60.33 rubles. upon purchase and 63.45 rubles. when selling by a bank, the euro exchange rate as of May 11, 2018 is 72.00 rubles. and 75.50 rub. when buying and selling by Sberbank, respectively.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week 2018 in Russia: expert opinion
According to the senior analyst of the Group of Companies Forex Club Alena Afanasyeva, the ruble will tend to 60 rubles per dollar - strong idhumkz psychological barrier, near which National currency been trading for a long time.
In turn, the euro is now suffering losses on the world market against the dollar, so paired with the European currency, the ruble can confidently strengthen and even try to break through the 70 ruble mark.
The strengthening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro occurs against the backdrop of rising oil prices after the worsening situation around Iran. However, according to the expert, in this case, primarily speculative factors are important.
“There is strong technical resistance around $78 per barrel for Brent. Plus, let’s not forget about the seasonality factor - in May, demand for oil traditionally begins to grow, because the driving season is expected,” Economics Today quotes Afanasyeva.
According to her, oil prices will tend to rise until the end of May, which is traditional for this period. However, the barrel is unlikely to break the $80 mark.
U.S. dollar is the official currency of the United States of America. Bank code- USD. Denoted by $. 1 dollar is equal to 100 cents. The denominations of banknotes in circulation are: 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 (a relatively rare banknote), 1 dollar, as well as coins of 1 dollar, 50, 25, 10, 5 and 1 cent. In addition, there are banknotes in denominations of 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 100,000, which were previously used for mutual settlements within the Federal Reserve System, but have been no longer issued since 1945, and since 1969 have been officially withdrawn from circulation because they were replaced electronic system payments. The name of the monetary unit, according to the most common version, comes from the medieval thaler coin minted in Germany.
Traditionally, the obverse of the US dollar features images of presidents and political figures of the United States. On modern banknotes These are Benjamin Franklin - 100 dollars, Ulysses Grant - 50, Andrew Jackson - 20, Alexander Hamilton - 10, Abraham Lincoln - 5, Thomas Jefferson - 2 and George Washington - 1 dollar. The reverse side depicts historical monuments: 100 dollars - Independence Hall, where the Declaration of Independence was signed, 50 - the Capitol, 20 - the White House, 10 - the US Treasury, 5 - the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. The $1 bill has a special design on the back consisting of a double-sided image of the so-called Great Seal of the United States, used to authenticate government-issued documents and kept in Washington.
It is believed that to counteract the printing of counterfeit dollars, the design must be changed at least once every 7-10 years. Moreover, absolutely all US banknotes issued since 1861, when money was first issued in paper form, are legal tender in the United States.
The first decision to issue US dollars was made by Congress in 1786, and in 1792 they became the main currency of the state. Since 1796, the principle of a bimetallic monetary unit was introduced, that is, both silver and gold coins were minted. Moreover, each time, as a result of a change in the price ratio by two precious metal either one or the other coins disappeared from circulation. Until 1857, foreign money (primarily Spanish pesos and later Mexican dollars) also served as legal tender in the United States.
In 1900, the gold standard law was passed. At this point, 1 dollar corresponded to 1.50463 grams of pure gold. In 1933, it was devalued for the first time by 41% as a result of the Great Depression. A troy ounce of gold now costs $35.
At the end of World War II, as a result of the Bretton Woods Agreement, the dollar became the only monetary unit, exchanged for gold, while the rates of other world currencies were tied to the American one. Simultaneously in post-war years The United States became Europe's main creditor. Thus, the US dollar became the world's currency of account and took its place in the reserves of central banks.
However, by 1960, chronic US budget deficits led to the fact that the number of dollars owned by creditors around the world exceeded the size of the gold reserve. The crisis of 1969-70 complicated the situation. As a result, in 1971, the exchange of dollars for gold was finally stopped after a corresponding statement by President Richard Nixon.
During the 1970s, the dollar depreciated. The situation was aggravated by the crisis of 1975-76. In 1976, as a result of an international agreement, a new one was created - the Jamaican currency system, which finally legitimized the abandonment of gold backing of currencies.
The strengthening of the dollar in the 1980s put American manufacturers at a disadvantage relative to other countries. As a result, it was decided to devalue the dollar by cutting interest rates. And by 1991 it was possible to actually halve exchange rate against the Japanese yen, pound and German mark.
In 1992, as a result of a fall British pound Sterling and the crisis in Europe, the dollar rose in price by almost 30%, but from April 1993 its quotes began to decline again - until 1998, when the dollar weakened significantly against the Japanese yen - from 136 to 111 within three days. This was due to the massive repatriation of funds from Japanese investors as a result of the market crisis developing countries, including default in Russia.
1999-2001 - a period of new strengthening of the US dollar, which was stopped by the Federal Reserve, which reduced interest rates up to 2% in order to stimulate the economy.
The most important event for the dollar was the creation in 1999 of the single European currency, which central banks many creditor countries of the United States transferred part of their reserves.
For the summer of 2011, the US dollar is quoted in the range of 1.40-1.46 dollars per euro, 76-78 Japanese yen per dollar and 1.62-64 dollars per pound.
Despite competition with the euro, today the United States currency occupies a leading place in the reserves of central banks. In addition, it remains the main settlement currency between countries in international trade, and is also the base one for settlements through payment systems. plastic cards outside the European Union area, where the euro predominates.
The US dollar is the main currency Forex market. Transactions take place through this currency and basic quotes are set.
Experts' opinions regarding the future of the dollar are diametrically opposed. On the one hand, many believe that in the near future the collapse of the dollar financial system inevitable due to the enormous external debt United States, the largest in the world. As of the summer of 2011, it exceeds $14.5 trillion.
On the other hand, the stability of the dollar is based on high economic indicators. The US economy ranks first in terms of gross domestic product, ahead of China, which is in second position, almost twice. In addition, the high dollar exchange rate contributes to monetary policy The Federal Reserve System, as well as the faith of investors who keep their assets in US currency and during crises seek to transfer them into dollars, finding refuge in US debt instruments from the elements of a market economy.
Experts predict that the US dollar exchange rate in May 2018 will be subject to strong fluctuations. This is not surprising, because today the American currency is already showing its new record. Thus, the dollar rose in price by 1.09 rubles and reached 64.04 Russian rubles. The jump occurred for the first time since April 11, as evidenced by trading data on the Moscow Exchange.
The European currency, at the same time, is valued at 76.67 rubles per euro. It also showed growth, increasing by 60 kopecks.
Financial analysts attribute the weakening position of the Russian ruble to a further fall in world oil prices. This comes in anticipation of the release of weekly data on hydrocarbon inventories in the United States. If the same trend continues, the Russian ruble will continue to depreciate in May.
The latest data shows the price of North Sea Brent crude, due for delivery in July, fell 0.6%. Its current price is $72.7 per barrel. June WTI oil futures also fell 0.1% to settle at $67.19 per barrel.
The influence of foreign policy relations on the exchange rate of the national currency
Alpari senior analyst Anna Bodrova previously noted that the weakening of the ruble exchange rate will be felt in the second half of this year. “Foreign policy relations are a rather bright and usually unexpected catalyst for the foreign exchange market of any country,” the analyst believes.
Anna Bodrova believes that sharp currency fluctuations can only happen if the Donald Trump administration wants to “tighten the screws” in Russian-American relations. The US dollar exchange rate will not increase much until the end of May, the expert believes.
Forecast for the US dollar exchange rate until the end of 2018
May of this year may not demonstrate significant changes in the exchange rate of the currency basket, but growth is inevitable until the end of 2018. Analysts believe that much will depend on federal loan bonds. If sanctions against Russia are tightened, then government securities will lose their attractiveness on the stock exchange. The budget will not receive enough money, and the exchange rate of the Russian ruble will fall again. At this rate, by the end of this year the US dollar exchange rate may reach 75 rubles.
Exchange rates for today, May 24, 2018: The Bank of Russia raised the dollar rate and lowered the euro rate for today.
Official dollar and euro exchange rates for today, May 24, 2018, Central Bank of the Russian Federation
The official dollar exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia on May 24, 2018 increased by 33.35 rubles. compared to Wednesday’s figure and amounted to 61.59 rubles, the euro exchange rate today, on the contrary, dropped by 5.64 kopecks - to 72.18 rubles.
The value of the bi-currency basket on Thursday increased by 15.8 kopecks compared to the previous figure, amounting to 66.35 rubles.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week 2018 in Russia: expert opinion
According to International Financial Center expert Nikolai Shiryaev, the Russian currency has finally recovered from the strengthening of the dollar and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation’s play to weaken it.
The specialist is confident that the so-called soft devaluation to prepare the economy for the next round of anti-Russian sanctions was successful, and the market is regaining its positions, and the regulator will now not stop the planned strengthening of the ruble with additional measures, and the rosy news in the economy will have an effect.
The ruble continues to provide support this week taxable period, which will pull about 950 billion rubles from the market. The limiting factor for the strengthening of the ruble remains the purchase of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation in the planned daily volume, but this is clearly not enough to weaken it in the near future,” the Regnum expert quotes.
Another news was the sale by Sberbank of its “daughter” in Turkey. The deal was completed at a discount of $2 billion, and funds from the sale will be credited to accounts in the near future.
"Well currency pair The ruble-dollar at auction continues to fluctuate within a fairly narrow range (0.5 ruble per day). The US dollar/ruble exchange rate will fluctuate around the position of 60.50-61.50 rubles until the start of the forum, and also until the local fixation of profitability of foreign market participants ends with the flow into more and more interesting US assets,” the expert added.
Experts announced a fresh forecast for the dollar exchange rate at the end of May 2018
According to recent expert forecasts, during May 2018 the dollar exchange rate will collapse the ruble. The exchange rate of the domestic currency will in any case decline amid new sanctions and economic problems in Russia. According to authoritative analyst Stepan Demura, it is practically impossible to hold the ruble - it will weaken to 70.00 rubles/dollar by the end of this month, and the dollar will rise at this time.
Strengthening American dollar is happening last month. Against this backdrop, even the euro reached new lows. The dollar is in demand due to the divergence of monetary policy.
The dollar exchange rate will collapse the ruble exchange rate in May
The strengthening of the dollar and the increase in demand for it cools the American economy, but in this situation the sale of resource assets increases and oil becomes cheaper. Last week, the yield on 10-year securities exceeded 3%, and this fact fueled the rally in the US currency.
The dollar exchange rate in May 2018 will reach 61.00-63.00 rubles.
The latest forecasts of some experts say that in May 2018 the dollar exchange rate will show strong dynamics. Also, experts note, if sanctions against Russia are tightened, government securities will no longer be attractive on the stock exchange, Therussiantimes reports. The budget will not receive enough money, the ruble will weaken, and the dollar exchange rate may rise to 75.00 rubles by the end of the year.
- May 24, THU - 61.37 rubles;
- May 25, Fri - 61.64 rubles;
- May 28, Mon - 62.81 rubles;
- May 29, Tue - 62.96 rubles;
- May 30, Wed - 62.92 rubles;
- May 31, Thu - 62.89 rubles.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for June 2018
The Russian currency is showing strengthening. For the first time since April 2018, they offered less than 61 rubles for the dollar, less than 72 rubles for the euro, what will happen to the exchange rate next, according to expert forecasts.
Foreign exchange trading on May 22, 2018 showed changes in investor sentiment towards the Russian ruble. American currency at the close of the Moscow Exchange it was trading at a price of 60.97 rubles: to a level below 61 rubles. The dollar fell only a month and a half ago – on April 20. A similar situation was observed with regard to the euro: less than 72 rubles were offered for the European currency. (RUB 71.87) – for the first time since April 9. Since Monday, the value of the world's largest currencies has decreased by 1.38 rubles. and 1.57 rub.
What is the reason for the fall in the exchange rate of the dollar and euro?
Experts explain this behavior of the dollar and euro by the situation in the oil market, as well as by the fact that exporting companies are running out of deadlines tax payments: Friday, May 25, 2018 – the last day for paying VAT, mineral extraction tax and excise taxes, and May 28 – income tax. According to financiers, in total they will have to pay over 1.6 trillion rubles.
“The intensive sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters in anticipation of tax payments at the end of this week - the beginning of next week is supporting the Russian currency,” explain Rosbank specialists.
Experts also note that the dollar exchange rate is declining not only against the ruble, but also against other foreign currencies– money from developing countries. Thus, the Colombian peso has increased by 2.7% since the beginning of this week, and the Brazilian real by 2.6%. Investor interest in these currencies increased after negotiations between the United States and China: the brewing trade war between these countries, according to US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, has been “postponed.”
Experts' forecasts regarding the dollar exchange rate
Financiers believe that unless any extraordinary events occur in the world, the ruble will continue to strengthen in the near future.
“In the absence of geopolitical upheavals, the position of the ruble looks quite stable. Moreover, it is positively influenced by the current high oil prices, to which the Russian currency has not responded for a long time,” says Boris Krasnozhenov, director of markets and equities at Alfa Bank.
Experts believe that the dollar exchange rate in Russian foreign exchange market may fall to 59-60 rubles/dollar if high prices for “black gold” remain.