MOSCOW, November 15 – RIA Novosti, Dmitry Mayorov. People planning New Year's trips abroad or other spending of foreign currency in the near future should worry about buying it now, advise experts interviewed by RIA Novosti.
Buying currency to save money is not so obvious when compared to saving high profitability ruble financial instruments and the expected volatility of the domestic currency market, analysts say.
The sharp rise in the dollar and euro against the ruble has sharply raised the question of the advisability of purchasing major reserve currencies. This directly depends on the plans of buyers, experts say.
The dollar exchange rate for “tomorrow” settlements by 18.34 Moscow time decreased by 0.07 rubles - to 60.18 rubles, the euro exchange rate grew by 0.05 rubles - to 71.08 rubles, follows from data from the Moscow Exchange. Earlier on Wednesday, the euro had already risen to 71.575 rubles - the maximum since August 4, the dollar - to 60.92 rubles - the maximum since July 11.
For those leaving - buy
Many Russians go abroad during the New Year holidays, and they should hurry up and buy foreign currency, says Alexander Razuvaev from the Alpari company.
“A weak ruble is beneficial to the budget, which means the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance are, in fact, not against weakening Russian ruble. Of course, you shouldn’t expect a large-scale devaluation like in 2014, but the ruble is definitely more likely to fall than rise in value. No one will allow the collapse of the ruble before the presidential elections, and inflation will be kept at the target of 4%,” he added.
If foreign currency spending is already planned (for example, a New Year's holiday or buying something denominated in foreign currency), then postpone the purchase in an attempt to find best course not necessary, also advises Alexey Skaballanovich from the Region EsM company.
"If you look at the technical picture of trading in the USD-RUB pair, then a possible downward correction is likely by one ruble, and an increase by two. Therefore, the possible losses are greater than the theoretical gain. Much more reasonable for individuals— buyers of dollars is a purchase directly on the exchange. Thus, you can save on the spread and commission, and this gain is more significant and more certain. Again, for the New Year, traditionally the difference between the buying and selling rates in exchange offices is growing and can reach unreasonably high values during the holidays,” he said.
By the end of the year, a weakening of the ruble is expected rather than a return of the dollar to 57 rubles and below; with the euro, accordingly, a roughly similar picture emerges, Anastasia Sosnova from the Russian Capital Bank also assesses the situation.
If you plan to make significant expenses on New Year holidays in foreign currency (travel abroad), then you should purchase the required amount in several stages to smooth out possible exchange rate fluctuations, advises Andrey Manko from RIA Rating.
“Most likely, until the end of the year, the ruble will strengthen at certain points, and the exchange rate will be slightly lower than now,” he added.
If you are planning trips abroad, then you should stock up on foreign currency right now, since November is possibly last month in 2017, when the Russian currency will more or less maintain its position, says Evgenia Abramovich from Dukascopy Bank.
“The fact is that no one needs a strong ruble in the current circumstances: inflation is below the target level by a quarter, and either the December seasonal increase in sales or another decline in the ruble will return it back to 4%. Oil has strengthened significantly against the backdrop of scandals with Saudi Arabia and against a general positive information background regarding a possible increase in oil consumption in the future, however, these factors are extremely temporary for the market. Finally, the Fed rate increase this time will most likely have an impact on the ruble, since there are no factors that would neutralize it. there’s no more left,” she explained her position.
In December, the ruble may fall in price against the dollar by 5%, but at times of peak demand for the currency, the scale of the weakening may be slightly higher, predicts Vladimir Evstifeev from Zenit Bank.
Savers - stay in the ruble
For Russians who earn and spend money within the country, foreign currency is hardly interesting, argues Razuvaev from the Alpari company.
"Interest rates on bank deposits are now significantly higher than inflation, and stocks Russian companies Overall, they are trading well below their 2008 highs. At the same time, ruble deposits are, of course, more reliable and short-term, while shares are riskier and long-term investments", - he said.
Now there is no point in buying a currency in order to make money on the exchange rate, since even if the dollar continues to grow, a significant part of the earnings will be eaten up by the spreads accompanying high volatility on the market, says Yuri Kravchenko from Veles Capital Investment Company.
“If you have a significant amount in rubles, it makes sense to pay attention to a number of short-term offers on deposits of the largest banks (state banks, the largest foreign subsidiaries), among which you can find a ruble yield of 7% plus per annum. For depositors with an increased appetite for risk - short-term ruble deposits of banks transferred to the Consolidation Fund banking sector", he added.
There is no need to panic now; the period of high demand for currency will most likely not last long, says Georgy Vashchenko from Freedom Finance Investment Company.
Next week, the USD-RUB pair may return to the range of 59-60, he estimated.
Despite the tendency for the ruble to weaken, ordinary citizens should not speculate in currency, argues Manko from RIA Rating. “Firstly, there will be noticeable losses on conversion, and secondly, in rubles the yield is noticeably higher,” he explained his position.
The dollar exchange rate against the Russian ruble the day before was set at 56 rubles 34 kopecks. As polytika.ru found out, this is the most low rate dollar to ruble over the past year and a half - the last time this was recorded was in the middle of summer the year before last. The day before, the Arguments and Facts publication looked into whether it is worth running to an exchange office for American currency or whether you need to wait a little longer, having conducted a survey of financial analysts.
It's time
“The current dynamics of ruble pairs makes both the Central Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance quite nervous Russian Federation“- says the head of the analytical department of Grand Capital Sergey Kozlovsky. According to him, we should expect decisive actions from the federal regulator aimed at restraining the ruble exchange rate. That is why, the expert believes, current rate around 56-56.5 rubles for 1 U.S. $ can be called acceptable for purchasing currency. Meanwhile, Kozlovsky advises not to expect rapid growth of the dollar in the foreseeable future - you should prepare for approximately 58-60 rubles per dollar by the middle current year.
Imminent downward correction?
“It seems to me that the current situation that has developed in foreign exchange market, creates the most optimal conditions for buying dollars in order to form savings for the medium term. From the very beginning of this year, we have seen a fairly steady increase in interest from large investors to the Russian ruble, which certainly affects the increase in indicators of its resistance to negative external factors“- says IFC Markets analyst Dmitry Lukashov.
Lukashov suggests paying attention to the fact that even during the recent correction, when the strength of the psychological threshold of $50 per barrel of oil was tested, the ruble not only managed to maintain its position, but also continued to strengthen. And if we add to this the reduction of the key rate by the Central Bank, as well as ongoing interventions from the Ministry of Finance, it turns out that today the position of the ruble looks more than confident.
“However, it seems to me that a fairly long-term strengthening of the Russian currency, according to all market laws, should end in a downward correction. Today we have approached almost the maximum values of the ruble pair, therefore, it will most likely not be possible to break through the level of 56 rubles per 1 US dollar. Moreover, next month we may see the exchange rate return to 58-58.5 rubles per dollar,” says Lukashov.
The outlook is stable
“We are not inclined to predict any sharp changes in the dollar-ruble pair in the foreseeable future. Medium-term factors for this moment indicate a slight strengthening of the dollar in the future. General fluctuations in the exchange rate may be slightly higher in May, right before the OPEC+ meeting, within the framework of which a decision is planned to be made regarding the extension of the program to reduce oil production,” says Stanislav Novikov, deputy head of the board of the FG BCS for retail.
According to Novikov, those who currently have dollars in stock should not rush to sell them, it is better to hold them. But if you want to buy a little more American currency, then the exchange rate range of 55-57 rubles per US dollar can be called good for this, but the expert still does not recommend investing all your funds in the currency. According to him, the optimal share foreign currency in the structure of savings of a person who lives and makes purchases in Russia – 40%. The remaining 60% of cash is best kept in rubles.
For help credit organizations contact the Central Bank
The banks were short of dollars. Foreign exchange reserves of credit institutions approached zero. As a result, they had to seek help from central bank. On Tuesday, financial institutions borrowed the maximum amount of “green” money from the regulator since 2014 - $1.5 billion. This indicates that there is a shortage of currency in the market, the demand for which is not decreasing. Is it worth buying a dollar now, MK asked the experts.
Financial market participants began to feel a shortage of currency in the spring. In July, inventories decreased by $3.2 billion, in June - by $0.7 billion, in May - by $4.3 billion, in April - by $3.7 billion, in March - by $1.6 billion.
As experts explain, there are several reasons for the reduction in the volume of currency.
In particular, the Ministry of Finance contributed. The department placed $3.9 billion in bonds in September 2017, which credit institutions rushed to buy. “It is more profitable to store liquidity in guaranteed instruments - in bonds of the Ministry of Finance or large parastatal companies. It is safe and also brings income at the level of 7.5-9.5% per annum. Therefore, banks do not maintain sufficient reserves of foreign currency. They prefer to borrow it “at the last moment,” when foreign currency payments and settlements are due. Moreover, they borrow from the Central Bank, where the interest rates for these operations are the lowest,” explains Pyotr Pushkarev, chief analyst at TeleTrade Group.
However, the main reason for the reduction in the volume of foreign currency is payments by a number of the largest Russian corporations for external debt. “They have been accumulating currency since the end of the second quarter. But now, when the dollar costs 58.3 rubles, companies prefer to buy more foreign currency. Corporations base their forecast on the dollar exchange rate based on the fact that the Central Bank will continue to reduce key rate. This means that Russian assets will become less and less interesting. Foreign investors and speculators will withdraw their capital. And as a result, the ruble exchange rate will begin to weaken,” notes CEO“Money Fanny” Alexander Shustov.
Apparently, corporations plan to make money from this growth in the dollar exchange rate. However, citizens can follow their example. But from a risk management perspective, experts recommend that Russians keep 50% of their savings in rubles and the other 50% in foreign currency. “The so-called dual-currency basket allows you, if not to earn money, then at least not to lose your savings due to exchange rate fluctuations,” continues Shustov.
As rightly noted financial analyst Gerchik&Co. Viktor Makeev, “the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, first of all, depends on oil prices, the geopolitical situation and published statistics for the country.” For example, the expert does not rule out that “black gold” may continue its current upward movement - up to $65-67 per barrel. And this, in turn, will provide Russia with additional foreign exchange earnings and thereby support the ruble. The Russian currency may strengthen from the current 58.3 rubles per dollar to 56.
True, as analysts note, the future fate of the ruble will also depend on GDP data for the third quarter of 2017.” “By the end of the year, in the absence of new positive news, it is possible that the exchange rate will fall to 60-62 rubles per dollar,” warns Mashchenko.
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Observing the unstable situation in the country's economy, many people quickly succumb to panic and begin to buy currency en masse.
Any, even the slightest, changes in the social situation have repeatedly demonstrated how precarious the position of the Russian monetary unit is, and how sensitive the exchange rate is to political fluctuations. Exchange quotes serve as a clear example.
The desire of the population to protect their financial interests It’s clear, however, to increase capital you need to be able to make the right decisions. The pressing question today: whether it is worth investing in foreign currencies, mainly in American ones, is also of concern to authoritative experts, whose opinions we will consider below.
Why is the ruble falling?
Traditionally, in Russia, citizens give preference to the American currency, which has noticeably strengthened over last years. Why did this trend arise? Of course, the ongoing conflict of political interests between the United States, Russia, Ukraine, and now Syria has a huge impact.
The weakening of the ruble exchange rate is mainly caused by the following reasons:
- reduction in the cost of “black gold” – oil;
- the introduction of economic sanctions against our state;
- cessation of trade turnover with Western companies;
- the decision of the Central Bank to use foreign exchange interventions exclusively in emergency situations;
- predominantly dollar payments when carrying out export operations;
- instability of the EU and Eurozone.
The annexation of Crimea and humanitarian and social support for the population of Eastern Ukraine also have a significant impact on the weakening of the economy.
In connection with current events in the world, experts from the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation predict two options for the development of the country’s economy:
- Optimistic - the situation in Ukraine will stabilize, anti-Russian sanctions will be lifted, the cost of a barrel of oil will rise, and the dollar will drop to 35-40 rubles.
- Pessimistic - the escalation of the Ukrainian military conflict continues. Sanctions from the West will become tougher, and the price of oil will fall even further. In this situation, the ruble exchange rate will decrease and inflation will rise.
Leading specialists - experts, economists, chairmen of large banks (Sberbank, Alfa-Bank, BCS Premier) still count on the stabilization of the Russian ruble.
Looks at the situation more realistically Andrey Nechaev- founder of the Russian Financial Corporation and First Minister of Economy. He believes that as long as panic among the population grows, the ruble cannot be strengthened. And this is logical, everyone remembers the currency rush at the end of 2014, which led to an insane demand for “Americans” and “Europeans”, and, as a result, to an increase in their value.
Alexey Kudrin, former Minister of Finance, is also confident that the ruble is expected to weaken by the end of 2015.
And here is the director of the investment company "Finam" Solabuto Nikolay predicts a noticeable improvement in the current situation only by the end of 2018. Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation German Gref I agree that the long-term perspective of 2016-2018 will bring a decrease in the dollar to 45 rubles.
What do foreign experts think?
Despite the US government's confidence in the growth of the country's economy, the exchange rate of the American currency will begin to decline in the coming months. This is already noticeable.
The opinions of independent foreign experts were also divided into several points of view:
- optimistic– sanctions will not be lifted, trade relations between Russia and China are developing at a slow pace, the dollar exchange rate remains in the middle;
- realistic– Russia’s foreign economic relations are being established with Asian countries and China, this allows the Russian monetary unit strengthen yourself and not give up your position;
- pessimistic– Russia and its partner countries are minimizing dollar transactions, which leads to a fall in the American currency.
As you can see, no one gives clear predictions about what the exchange rate will be and whether it is worth investing in foreign money. And what will happen next, time will tell. Definitely, you should not transfer all your money into any specific currency. Distribute the amount evenly to reduce the risk of losing everything.
Important Takeaways
- Anton Siluanov, head of the Ministry of Finance, believes that short-term investments in dollars are fraught with the loss of existing savings. A promising option is to buy dollars during the period of “rollback” (usually after direct lines with Vladimir Putin, signing lucrative contracts on oil and gas transactions, etc.) and subsequent sale during the period of growth - with transaction amounts of 50 thousand rubles. There is no point in trading less.
- Will cost less non-cash transactions exchange by converting from your account. In addition, banks usually offer favorable rates in the evening, at the end of the work week and when exchanging, for example, euros for dollars.
- Do not forget about the mandatory commission, the amount of which must be taken into account when planning income from the transaction. It is profitable to withdraw foreign currency cash from your card.
- Leading experts advise keeping money in the currency in which you receive your main income.
- When choosing a bank, evaluate the conditions offered - quotes, commission size, safety and reliability of the financial institution.
Naturally, everyone must decide on their own which currency to invest in and how much. If you do not plan to spend foreign currency or travel abroad, there is no point in buying euros and dollars with all your savings. A moderately correct decision would be to invest in several major currencies, including, in addition to the leaders, the Chinese yuan and the ruble. If you intend to make money on the difference in rates, today is not the best time for this, according to professional financiers. To compare points of view, read forecasts and track all changes, visit the popular forum on information resource www.banki.ru. Fresh discussions about the latest issues appear here quickly. financial news and offers in the world of banking services.
What assets will be the most profitable next year, and what is it better not to invest in, says AiF.ru.
Traditionally, at the beginning of the year, many are concerned with the question: how to preserve, and even better, increase savings, what is profitable to invest money in next year, and what investments should be abstained from. AiF.ru asked these questions to financial experts.
Irina Rogova, analyst at Forex Club Group
The traditional way to increase savings is bank deposit. However, it must be said that now the offers of various banks are not very interesting. According to the latest Central Bank data, the average maximum bet on deposit is 8.78%. Not too much, taking into account the fact that part of the income will be “eaten up” by inflation. Of course, this is better than just keeping your money at home, but there are other alternatives.
In the long term, investments in gold look interesting, but not in the form of jewelry, but in the form of impersonal metal accounts. Metal prices are changing, but given the political risks that could shake the world in 2017 (elections coming up in Germany, France, the Netherlands), as well as the uncertainty brought by the new US President Donald Trump , precious metals can be in high demand as protective assets and rise in price.
As for investing in currency, everything is not entirely clear. The ruble, as is known, reacts to oil prices to a fairly high extent. On the one hand, there is a chance that the price of “black gold” will rise, because the largest oil-producing countries have agreed to reduce production volumes. This means that the ruble can also grow. But on the other hand, history knows enough examples when OPEC did not adhere to the established quotas. And if such a precedent happens this time, oil will begin to fall, followed by the ruble. If we talk about investing in currencies, then, as always, it is worth adhering to the rule of several currencies. Moreover, at this stage, the ratio could perhaps be as follows: 30% dollar, 20% euro and 50% ruble.
If we consider investments in financial markets, then investments in some American securities may be quite attractive. The fact is that Donald Trump promised to cut taxes in his election program. If this succeeds, the middle class in the United States will have additional available funds. Naturally, they can be spent. Therefore, you can pay attention to shares of companies in the service sector (for example, Starbucks and McDonald’s), the film industry (Disney), retail chains(Home Depot).
As always when investing, it's worth remembering the rule: don't put all your eggs in one basket. It is better to form a “portfolio” from different groups of assets, including currencies, stocks, and precious metals.
Andrey Kochetkov, analyst at Otkritie Broker
The question of investing savings in 2017 is far from simple. However, if we start with currencies, then in December 2016 there was a very good situation for buying, if you only have ruble savings on hand. In addition, rates in US dollars are gradually increasing, which makes such investments more interesting. However, you should refrain from purchasing euros, unless this is related to future planning of a vacation in the EU, since crisis phenomena may still appear in Europe. The long-term path for the European currency is to weaken against the US dollar. Accordingly, part ruble savings can be converted into US dollars and thereby provide protection against a possible weakening of the Russian currency in 2017.
Further, the methods of accumulation and multiplication are no longer so simple. Currently Russian financial market offers the opportunity to open individual investment accounts(IIS). They are designed for citizens with an income of 600 thousand rubles per year. These accounts allow you to receive a refund of paid personal income tax up to 52 thousand from 400 thousand rubles invested in IIS. And, accordingly, such an account will allow you to invest in securities.
Artyom Deev, leading analyst at AMarkets
Next year everything will depend on what happens to the price of oil. If OPEC keeps its promises and we see crude in the range of $55-65 per barrel, then the economic situation will look positive.
The MICEX index may grow by 20-25%, that is, investments in Russian shares. Now they look undervalued due to sanctions, even against the backdrop of growth this year. It is best to invest in companies in the raw materials segment; you should also pay attention to companies that are focused on domestic demand. If the economy begins to emerge from the crisis, then Magnit, MTS, M-Video and other issuers will be of interest, as they will benefit from the fact that people will spend more. Energy workers may also be among the leaders.
Deposit rates will be reduced to 6-7% per annum depending on the policy of the Central Bank, so bonds of large Russian companies can become an alternative to deposits. They give a return of approximately 2% higher than on deposits.
As for investments in real estate, there is currently too much supply on the market, and one cannot count on high returns in this segment, especially against the backdrop of constant dumping by developers in the economy segment. The explosive growth that we saw before the 2008 crisis will not happen here yet.
Evgeny Koryukhin, analyst at Alor Broker
For investors in passive assets, such as bank deposits or real estate, the timing is not the best. better times. Deposit rates will decline next year, property taxes will rise, and rentals will become a less profitable type of business.
For conservative investors, I recommend choosing financial instruments with a fixed yield of 12-14% per annum in rubles, or buy the US dollar at current levels and place them in dividend shares of large American companies, for example, Verizon Telecommunications, AT&T, McDonald's. They can be purchased on the St. Petersburg Exchange.
Anton Polishkis, General Director of Lores Consulting
In 2017, we can safely advise keeping money in rubles in reliable banks on deposits with a rate of 8% per annum. If you have currency in your hands, there is no need to rush to convert into rubles. Take a closer look at the Eurobond market; some banks allow you to enter this asset with relatively small amounts.
Buy currency carefully and only for long-term investment horizons. I see levels below 60 rubles for the dollar and 63 rubles for the euro as comfortable for buying.
For those who have significant savings, I highly recommend paying attention to the real estate market. Now you can find very interesting offers (both for apartments within the city and for suburban real estate) with a discount of 30-50% from the pre-crisis price level.
However, you shouldn’t expect a sharp rise in real estate prices in the near future either; it now serves solely the purpose of preserving your funds.
I advise only professionals to buy shares. The risk of not guessing the timing of the purchase/sale is extremely high.