As you know, most modern economists believe that in market conditions the state is obliged to manage the economy, and therefore, to foresee the consequences of decisions made. The real economic policy of the state is expressed in determining the degree and methods of influence on all subjects economic relations. It is especially important for the state to be able to reduce (or eliminate) the impact of negative factors on socio-economic processes and stimulate the impact of positive factors. It is forecasting that can provide the identification of such relationships.

Forecasting means a special scientific study aimed at identifying the prospects for the development of a phenomenon or process. The term "forecasting" in translation from Greek means "knowledge in advance".

Economic Forecasting expands the base for sustainable and long-term relationships between business entities and government bodies management. Both forecasts are necessary to develop a long-term economic policy. Many countries successfully apply national and regional programs and strategic plans for economic development, which are based on economic forecasts.

Forecast - this is a probabilistic scientifically substantiated judgment about the state of the object in the future, about alternative ways and terms of its achievement. The forecast must meet the following requirements:

at the time of the statement, it is impossible to unambiguously determine its truth and falsity, since the forecast concerns an unobservable event;
it should contain indications of the spatial and temporal interval within which the predicted event will occur;
at the moment of utterance, it is necessary to have methods for verifying the forecast, with the help of which it is possible to assess the accuracy and reliability of the forecast.

Forecast development process is to process the available information about the object of forecasting by certain methods and get an idea of the directions of its evolution based on an analysis of its development trends.

Tasks, functions and principles of economic forecasting

Economic forecasting is designed to solve a two-pronged problem :

on the one hand, to give an objective scientifically substantiated picture of the future, based on the processes of today;
on the other hand, to choose the direction of activity and politics of the present, taking into account predictive estimates.

Along with this, an important task of forecasting can be called and identification in the present of those factors that will have an impact on the process under study in the future.

Main function forecasting consists in conducting a scientific analysis of socio-economic processes and trends, as well as in anticipation of new economic situations and identification of nodal economic problems. The main forecasting functions also consist in the study of objective relationships of socio-economic phenomena and processes in specific conditions, at a certain stage in the development of the economy and society, in the assessment of the object of forecasting, in identifying possible alternatives for the development of the economy in the future, in making optimal decisions.

Forecasting principles change depending on economic conditions that exist at a particular historical stage in the development of society. For example, when moving from planned economy To market economy in our country, such principles as the principle of combining politics and economics, the principle of directive planning, etc., gradually disappeared.

In market conditions, the following principles are distinguished, on which the forecasting process is based :

scientific validity of the forecast - development using scientific methods, taking into account the laws of development of nature, society and thinking;
continuity of forecasting - the forecast must be constantly adjusted taking into account changes in the situation in the country's economy;
a combination of long-term and current forecasting - these types of forecasting are carried out in conjunction, but priority is given to long-term forecasting;
consistency of forecasts - the developed forecast should be interconnected with adjacent forecasts;
multivariance, alternative forecast - it is recommended to develop several forecast options (optimistic, pessimistic, realistic) in order to use another option if the situation changes;
selection of the main factors - when forecasting, the main factors influencing the process under study should be included in the calculations;
systematic development of the forecast - the forecasting process should be considered, on the one hand, as a single integral system, and on the other hand, as a complex system consisting of separate independent blocks;
verification of forecasts - forecast estimates must be reliable and justified;
adequacy - the maximum approximation of the predictive model to reality, trends, patterns;
profitability - the effect of the developed forecast should exceed the costs of its development.

The principles of forecasting provide the methodological unity of various forecasting methods and models.

Classification of forecasts according to various criteria

Different researchers offer different criteria for classifying forecasts.

According to the purpose of development, forecasts are divided search and regulatory. Search engines are based on finding out the future development of the phenomenon under study, while maintaining the trend of the past. Normative ones take into account pre-set goals, certain ways and deadlines for achieving them. They are developed from a given state in the future, taking into account existing trends.

Allocate according to the time horizon the following types forecasts :

operational forecasts, which are developed for up to one month and contain only quantitative indicators;
short-term forecasts developed for up to one year and containing general quantitative indicators;
medium-term forecasts developed for a period of 1-5 years and containing both quantitative and general qualitative assessments;
long-term forecasts developed for a period of 5-15 years and containing general quantitative and general qualitative indicators;
long-range forecasts, which are developed for a period of more than 20 years and contain general qualitative characteristics.

According to their content, forecasts are :

economic forecasts - provide information about the development of any economic indicator;
demographic forecasts - cover the movement of the population and the reproduction of labor resources, the level and structure of employment, etc.;
social forecasts - provide information about the level and quality of life of the population;
environmental forecasts - provide information about changes in the environmental situation in the country, city, region, etc.;
forecasts of natural resources - contain information about the needs of society in natural resources and about the possibilities of their use, covering all types of social reproduction and the natural environment;
scientific and technical forecasts - consider achievements scientific and technological progress.

According to the development methods, forecasts are divided into intuitive and formalized ones. Intuitive ones rely on information obtained from expert assessments. In some situations, only these forecasts can be used in forecasting (for example, when the forecast object is new and there is no statistical information about it, the forecast object is complex and many factors influence its development). Formalized ones are based on actual information about the object. Statistical data are processed by specialists using formalized methods.

According to the scale of forecasting, they distinguish :

macroeconomic forecasts (the object of forecasting is the country as a whole);
structural forecasts (interregional, intersectoral, etc.);
forecast for the development of industry complexes;
regional forecasts (the object of forecasting is the region);
forecast of the primary links of the economy (object - enterprise, firm);
global forecasts (object - the world as a whole, large world regions).

The main criterion for typology is functional, from the point of view of which forecasts are divided into two main types: search (exploratory according to E. Janch, research, trend, genetic, etc.) and target (normative, program) forecasts.

Search forecast - determination of possible states of the phenomenon in the future. A conditional continuation in the future of the trends in the development of the phenomenon under study in the past and present is assumed, abstracting from possible solutions, actions on the basis of which can radically change trends. In this case, the forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if the existing trends continue? Such forecasts are also called variant (scenario) calculations.

Normative forecast - determination of the ways and timing of achieving the possible states of the phenomenon, taken as a goal. Such a forecast answers the question: what are the ways to achieve the desired?

The search forecast is built on a certain scale (field, spectrum) of possibilities, on which the degree of probability of the predicted phenomenon is then established. With normative forecasting, the same probability distribution occurs, but in the reverse order: from a given state to observed trends.

Both types of forecasts act simultaneously in practice as approaches to forecasting and are used together. In their combination, the incentive role of forecasting as a tool for planning the achievement of goals is clearly manifested.

By lead time- the period of time for which the forecast is calculated, there are operational (current), short-term, medium-term, long-term and long-term (super-long-term) forecasts.

The operational forecast is designed for the future, during which no significant changes are expected in the development of the object of study - neither quantitative nor qualitative.

Short-term - for the prospect of only quantitative changes, long-term - not only quantitative, but mostly qualitative. The medium-term forecast covers the prospect between the short- and long-term with a predominance of quantitative changes over qualitative ones, the long-term (super-long-term) - for the prospect, when such significant qualitative changes are expected that in essence we can only talk about the most general prospects for the development of the object.

Operational forecasts contain, as a rule, detailed-quantitative assessments, short-term - general quantitative, medium-term - quantitative-qualitative and long-term - general qualitative assessments.

In socio-economic forecasts, the following time scale is empirically established: operational forecasts - up to one month; short-term - up to one year; medium-term - for several (usually up to five) years; twenty years old.

In countries with economies in transition, short-term forecasts are most in demand both by analysts and government agencies (government, parliament) for different levels management. Medium-term forecasts for the period correspond to the time of functioning of government bodies. An example of a long-term forecast is the results demographic projections until 2050, according to which India will surpass China in terms of population.

By object of study natural science, innovation and social science (social in the broad sense of the word) forecasts are distinguished. In natural science forecasts, the relationship between prediction and prediction is insignificant, close or practically close to zero due to the impossibility of controlling the object, so here, in principle, only exploratory forecasting is possible with a focus on the most accurate unconditional prediction of the future state of the phenomenon. In social science forecasts, this relationship is so significant that it can give the effect of self-fulfillment or, on the contrary, self-destruction of forecasts by people's actions based on goals, plans, programs, decisions (including those taken taking into account the forecasts made). In this regard, a combination of search and regulatory developments is necessary, i.s. conditional predictions with a focus on improving management efficiency. Technological forecasts occupy an intermediate position in this respect.

Details of the subtypes of forecasts are given in the Forecasting Workbook (1, pp. 13-15). Let us only note that economic, social, environmental forecasts belong to the group of social science forecasts.

By the scale of forecasting distinguish: macroeconomic (national economy) and structural (intersectoral, intersectoral, interregional) forecasts, forecasts for the development of individual complexes, sectors and regions, forecasts of economic entities, as well as individual industries and products. Note that the objects of macroeconomics are more stable and inertial in their development compared to the objects of microeconomics.

The division of forecasts depending on the nature of objects is associated with various aspects of the reproductive process. On this basis, the following economic forecasts are distinguished: the development of industrial relations, socio-economic prerequisites and consequences of technological progress, dynamics economic system(rate, factors and structure), reproduction of labor resources, employment, economic use natural resources, investments, the standard of living of the population, incomes and prices, consumer demand, foreign economic relations, etc. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the separation and isolated consideration of individual elements of the system are untenable from a methodological point of view.

According to the scale of forecasting, there are: 1)

macroeconomic and structural forecasts; 2)

complexes of the national economy (forecasts for the development of housing and communal services, the health care system, education, culture and art, the standard of living of the population, etc.); 3)

industry and regional forecasts;

By lead time, forecasts are divided into:

operational - up to one year;

short-term - from one to three years;

medium-term - from five to ten years;

long-term - from ten to twenty years;

long-term - over twenty years.

In terms of forecasting, forecasts are divided into search and target.

The search forecast is based on a conditional continuation of the trends in the development of the object under study in the past and present. Its task is to find out how the object under study will develop while maintaining existing trends. Examples of such a forecast are forecasts of the number of marriages, divorces in society, unemployment, and so on. the main forecasting method is extrapolation.

According to the modern classification, search forecasting can be of two types:

a) traditional (or extrapolative);

b) innovative (or alternative).

The traditional method assumes that the development of an object (for example, the social sphere) occurs and will proceed smoothly and continuously, i.e. all trends in the development of the object of forecasting identified in the past will be preserved. Therefore, the forecast can be a simple projection (extrapolation) of the past into the future.

If, at the same time, the forecast is not based on an analysis of the impact on development indicators of various factors, i.e. on multivariate analysis, but uses the dependence of indicators only on time (i.e., trends in indicators), then such a forecast is called "naive".

Basically, the "naive" forecast is used in stable economic systems to predict macroeconomic indicators (employment, etc.).

The innovative approach, unlike the traditional one, proceeds from the fact that the development of an object does not proceed smoothly and continuously, but abruptly and intermittently. The innovative approach is also called alternative, as it assumes that there are many options for the future development of the object. But it must be remembered that the traditional approach, excluding only the "naive" forecast, suggests a variant formulation. For example, the development of options that differ in different values of the predicted factors that affect the indicator under study, but are not influenced by various measures provided for in the forecast. IN agriculture- this is the weather (drought, favorable days, early frosts, etc.).

The target forecast is forecasting from the future to the present, as if forecasting "vice versa". In this case, the desired final development parameters (goals) are first set, and then the financial, material and labor resources necessary for this are determined. Such forecasting is also called normative-target. For example, a forecast is made of the dynamics of consumption of meat products by the population of the region under the existing physiological norms of consumption. The main forecasting method is interpolation.

A target forecast, unlike a search forecast, is developed on the basis of predetermined desired goals. Its task is to determine the ways and timing of achieving the possible states of the object of forecasting in the future, taken as a goal. While the search forecast is based on its past and present when determining the future state of an object, the target forecast is carried out in the reverse order: from a given state in the future, the availability of material, financial and other resources necessary to achieve the goal, to existing trends and their changes in the light of the goal. This forecasting is also called normative, because the goals set are often based on standards.

Target forecasting is usually used in cases where there is not enough information about the development of an object in the past, and, therefore, it is impossible not only to conduct multivariate analysis and modeling, but even to determine progressive development trends.

Essence and basic concepts of planning and forecasting

Subject studying the course of forecasting and planning the economy is the knowledge of the possible states of the functioning of the object in the future, the study of patterns and methods for developing economic forecasts. object study is the socio-economic system as a whole. At the macro level, the object of study is National economy. At the micro level - the production and economic activities of the company. Forecasting method - a set of techniques and ways of thinking that make it possible, on the basis of retrospective data, to derive a judgment of certain reliability regarding the future development of the economy. According to the degree of specificity and the nature of the impact on the course of the processes under study, the following are distinguished: forms of foresight: 1. Hypothesis - an assumption about the possible development in the future of those processes for which the current level of knowledge is very incomplete on the basis of the known regularities of the accumulated experience of the logic of change. 2. Forecast is a set of computational and analytical justifications about the future state of the object under consideration, the system of the phenomenon in quantitative and qualitative form. 3. Plan – a document that contains a system of indicators and a set of various measures to solve socio-economic problems. It reflects the goals, priorities, resources, sources of their provision, the procedure and deadlines for implementation.

Methodological principles of forecasting and planning

Methodological principles – starting positions, fundamental rules for the formation and justification of forecasts and plans. Among the most important are the following:

The principle of purposefulness requires that the plan clearly defines the goals to be achieved and the tasks that need to be solved to achieve this.

Certainty principle requires that the plan defines specific deadlines, executors, responsible persons, values of indicators. Otherwise, the plan will not work.

Continuity principle i.e., the development of forecasts and plans must be carried out continuously. The principle of alternativeness requires multivariate predictive and planned developments (alternatives).

The Principle of Efficiency. requires to carry out pl-th thus, in order to obtain a larger effect at a lower cost. Of all options the most efficient one should be chosen.
Principle of optimality. Of all possible options, the best one should be chosen from the point of view of a given optimality criterion and given constraints.
The principle of adequacy suggests that the methods and models used in pr-nii and pl-nii reflect the real processes taking place in the economy. The model can be simplified, but it should not simplify, let alone distort reality.
The principle of social orientation requires consideration and solution of social. problems, suggests that Pr and P of economic development should proceed from the interests of man and society. At the state level, the principle of social. orientation should be supplemented by the principle of social. justice, which is realized through the system of social. guarantees.
The principle of ecological orientation requires taking into account and solving issues related to ecology, with human impact on environment.
The named principles of pr-i and pl-i are basic (but not exhaustive) and underlie specific methods and models of forecasting and planning.

System of indicators of plans-forecasts

Index- a quantitative expression, an economic category of a process or phenomenon. Depending on the level of economic management, there are: macroeconomic indicators, sectoral indicators, regional ones. According to the scale of forecasting, there are: - macroeconomic forecasts, - intersectoral and interregional forecasts, - forecasts development of national economic complexes, - sectoral and regional forecasts, - forecasts of economic sectors; - forecasts of enterprises, associations, individual industries and products. In terms of time, forecasts are divided into: - long-term (from 5 to 15 - 20 years), - medium-term (from 3 to 5), - short-term (from a month to a year), - operational (up to 1 month - for every laziness, week, decade). In forecasting and planning, all indicators are divided into natural and cost, absolute and relative, quantitative and qualitative, approved, indicative and calculated.

Requirements for the indicators of the plan: - indicators of PIP, accounting and statistics should have methodological unity and comparability, which allows you to check the progress of the plan
- the complexity of the system of indicators (should cover various aspects of social reproduction) - the system of indicators should take into account the specifics of industries
- should focus the economy on improving the efficiency and quality of work. Economic Forecasts characterize the dynamics of economic development, structural shifts, foreign economic relations, territorial shifts in the distribution of productive forces, the reproduction of fixed assets and the investments necessary for this.

The essence of the directive form of planning

Directive- obligatory, rigid, subject to execution, involves the use, first of all, of command and administrative levers for the mandatory implementation of the established goals and objectives. The condition of obligation is realized through the issuance of relevant administrative and administrative documents - laws, decrees, orders, orders, after which the practical implementation of the established tasks, current and final control of the degree of implementation are carried out with the application of administrative and other IMPACT measures to the performers, depending on the final result achieved. Directive plans, as a rule, are targeted and characterized by excessive detail.

Main features of strategic and indicative planning

indicative planning differs in that the goals of socio-economic development are defined in the form of specific parameters (indicators), the achievement of which is ensured by specially designed, mostly indirect, economic measures state influence on the behavior of market participants. The main indicators are: 1) characteristics of growth rates, changes in the structure and efficiency of the economy, development of foreign economic relations; 2) dynamics indicators financial system And monetary circulation, market development valuable papers, price movements; 3) indicators of changes in employment and the standard of living of the population, the development of the social sphere, etc. For economic entities, the indicators of the state indicative plan are only advisory in nature. Strategic planning should consist in defining long-term fundamental goals and establishing ways to achieve them. When drawing up a strategic plan, it is necessary to take into account the most likely changes in the external and internal environment of the planned facility, develop a set of measures aimed at mitigating the impact of negative and strengthening the influence of positive factors. There is a lot of work to be done to determine how to solve the organizational, methodological and resource problems that arise when creating a strategic planning system at the federal and regional levels. Tactical (operational) planning extends to particular issues, the solution of which is necessary to achieve strategic goals. It is carried out in the form of developing short-term plans for the development of specific elements social infrastructure, individual aspects of the development of economic systems.

Forecast classification

Different researchers offer different criteria for classifying forecasts.

1. According to the purpose of development predictions are divided into search and regulatory. search engines are based on clarifying the future development of the phenomenon under study while maintaining the trend of the past. Regulatory take into account pre-set goals and certain ways and deadlines for achieving them. They are developed from a given state in the future, taking into account existing trends. 2. By time horizon - operational forecasts that are developed for up to one month and contain only quantitative indicators; short-term forecasts developed for up to one year and containing general quantitative indicators; medium-term- developed for a period of 1-5 years and containing both quantitative and general qualitative assessments; long-term- developed for a period of 5-15 years and containing general quantity and general quality indicators; long-term- are developed for a period of over 20 years and contain general quality characteristics. 3. By content:economic- provide information on the development of any economic indicator; demographic- cover the movement of the population and the reproduction of labor resources, the level and structure of employment, etc.; social- provide information about the level and quality of life of the population; ecological- gives information about changes in the environmental situation in the country, city, region, etc.; natural resource forecast- contains information about the needs of society in natural resources and the possibilities of their use, covers all types of social reproduction and the natural environment; scientific and technical- consider the achievements of scientific and technological progress. 4. By development methods share:. intuitive are based on the information received according to expert estimates. In some situations, only these forecasts can be used in forecasting (for example, when the forecast object is new and there is no statistical information about it, the forecast object is complex and many factors influence its development). formalized based on factual information about the object. Statistical data are processed by specialists using formalized methods. 5. By the scale of forecasting: macroeconomic forecasts(the object of forecasting is the country as a whole); structural projections(interregional, intersectoral, etc.); forecast for the development of industry complexes; regional forecasts(the object of forecasting is the region); forecast of the primary links of the economy(object - enterprise, firm); global forecasts(object - the world as a whole, large world regions).

Macroeconomic forecasting and planning

In conditions unstable economy special importance should be given to macroeconomic forecasting and planning. The prefix "macro" means that forecasting and planning are at the highest level. state structure management, and the economic system as a whole, the national economy, is used as its object. Subjects macroeconomic forecasting and planning are the central planning authorities. Macroeconomic planning involves the definition of goals for the development of the economic system and its individual elements as a whole, the allocation of priorities, the preparation of decisions for the center and the development of measures to achieve goals in the interaction of the lower levels of the management system, both among themselves and with the Center. Consequently, at the macro level, forecasting calculations should be carried out and the most effective options for the development of the economy should be determined, as well as a system of measures should be developed, including the formation of structural, innovative, financial and budgetary, monetary, pricing, social, regional and foreign economic policies. The system of predictive calculations should include forecasts of macroeconomic indicators, primarily gross national product, forecasts of performance indicators characterizing the quality economic growth(material consumption, capital productivity, labor productivity), forecasts of the structure of the economy. At the macro level, it is also necessary to carry out forecast calculations of economic potential, employment, demand for products, develop forecasts for investment, exports and imports, balance of payments, prices, exchange rate, inflation, government operations in the formation of the state budget, social development, real income population, purchasing funds and commodity resources and a number of others.

Forecasting and planning at the micro level

At the micro level- the level of the enterprise, organization (company) - the objects of forecasting and planning are: demand, production of products (performance of services), sales volume, need for material and workforce, costs of production and sales of products, prices, income of the enterprise, its technical development. Subjects of forecasting and planning- planning and financial bodies of the enterprise, marketing and technical departments. Forecast plans are developed for the enterprise, and for its structural divisions: shops, sections, services. Plans are formed for the future, short-term (year, quarter, month) and operational (day, decade). In the transition to market relations, special importance was attached to business plans. A business plan is developed to develop an enterprise strategy, assess its financial situation, determine the need for investment, attract financial resources and potential partners. Everyone needs it: bankers, project investors, the head and employees of the enterprise in order to know the prospects and test ideas for reality. Foreign businessmen have long realized that without a business plan it is impossible to start a worthwhile commercial event. Business plan- a document that analyzes the opportunities for starting or expanding a business in a particular situation and gives a clear idea of how the management of this enterprise intends to use these opportunities. The business plan consists of a number of sections.

Business plan of the enterprise, its purpose, functions

Business plan is a document that describes all the main aspects of the future of the company or new activity, contains an analysis of all the problems that she may encounter, as well as ways to solve these problems. A correctly drawn up business plan answers the question: is it worth investing money in the business at all and will the project bring income that will pay off all the effort and money spent? It is very important to do it on paper in accordance with certain requirements and carry out special calculations - this helps to see future problems and understand whether they can be overcome and where you need to insure yourself in advance. A business plan is a comprehensive document that substantiates and evaluates a project from the standpoint of all the main features that distinguish a project as a strategic decision from ongoing management activities. "Project" refers to a set of interrelated activities designed to create new products or services. The novelty and originality of the project is limited by time frames, beyond which the project loses its value, becomes unclaimed by the external environment. To create and implement a project, limited resources are required: labor, material, financial, technical. If the project is created and implemented in a competitive environment, then the development of a business plan is required to justify its effectiveness. In the absence of competition, the project initiator is limited to a feasibility study. Core value of a business plan is defined as: - makes it possible to determine the viability of the company in a competitive environment; - contains a guideline for how the company should develop; - serves as an important justification tool for obtaining financial support from external investors. It should be noted that a business plan is a promising document and it is recommended to draw it up for the first year on a monthly basis, for the second - on a quarterly basis, and only starting from the third year can it be limited to annual indicators. The development forecast includes: title page, content, descriptive part of the development forecast, annexes, reference and other materials confirming the initial data.

Methods of expert assessments of forecasting and planning

The main idea is to build a rational procedure for intuitive-logical thinking of a person in combination with number methods for evaluating and processing the results. Essence- the forecast is based on the opinion of a specialist or a team of specialists based on professional, scientific and practical experience. Distinguish 1.Customized - are based on the use of the opinions of experts-specialists of the relevant profile. Methods have become widespread interview, analytical, script writing; Interview method- a conversation between a forecaster and an expert according to the question-answer scheme, during which the forecaster, in accordance with a pre-developed program, puts questions to the expert regarding the prospects for the development of the predicted object. Success depends on the ability of an expert to give an impromptu opinion on various issues.

Analytical method- independent work of an expert on the analysis of trends, assessment of the state and development paths of the predicted object. An expert can use all the information he needs about the forecast object. He writes his findings in the form of a memorandum. The main advantage is the possibility of maximum use of the individual abilities of an expert. But it is not very suitable for forecasting complex systems and developing a strategy due to the limited knowledge of one expert in related fields of knowledge.

Script writing method should be attributed to both individual and collective expert assessments. Based on the definition of the logic of a process or phenomenon in time under various conditions. It involves the establishment of a sequence of events that develop during the transition from the current situation to the future state of the object.

2. Collective expert assessments - ("brainstorming") consists in using the creative potential of specialists in "brainstorming" problem situation, realizing first the generation of ideas, and then their destructuring (destruction, criticism) with the promotion of counter-ideas and the development of a consistent point of view.

Method "635"- one of the varieties of brainstorming. Delphi Method- one of the first attempts to develop a more reasonable and rigorous procedure for expert forecasting

Formalized forecasting and planning methods

Formalized methods include extrapolation methods, economic and mathematical methods, balance method, normative, etc. 1) basis extrapolation methods forecasting is the study of empirical series. Empirical series - a set of observations obtained sequentially in time, the function is the simplest mathematical model that reflects the dependence of the forecasting object on the factors influencing it. Dependencies can be single-factor y=f(x), multi-factor y=f(x1,x2,…xn), the dependence can be linear and non-linear. The calculation of the parameters A and B for a specific dependence function is carried out using the least squares method and its modification. The essence of the least squares method is: the desired parameters of the function must provide a minimum of the sum of squared deviations of the actual and theoretical levels of performance indicators. S=∑(y-uh)²→min. 2) Economic and mathematical methods involve the construction of a mathematical model of the socio-economic process of its solution and the logical interpretation of the result. Modeling can be experimental, iconic, and abstract. Economic and mathematical models include optimal planning models, intersectoral balance models, correlation and regression analysis, matrix models, economic and statistical models, decision making models, simulation models, network planning models. 3)Balance method- consists in linking the needs of the country, region, industry, enterprise in various types products, material, labor and financial resources with the possibilities of production of products and sources of resources. This method involves the development of a balance sheet, which is a system of indicators in which one part characterizing resources by sources of income is equal to the other, showing the distribution in all directions of their expenditures. The resource part of the balance is formed after the needs are determined. Resources are calculated for all sources of income. Once the needs have been identified, the relationship between needs and resources is developed. 4) Essence normative method consists in a feasibility study of forecasts, plans, programs using norms and standards. The norm characterizes a scientifically based measure of the resource per unit of production in the accepted units of measurement. For the calculation, the expression is usually used: Q=V*N, where Q is the desired value; V is the number of products, the number of inhabitants, etc.; N-norm. Norms and standards are divided into separate groups and types: norms of labor costs; production standards; time norms; norms for the use of material resources; consumption rates of raw materials, fuel, electricity; financial regulations; social norms; environmental regulations.

According to the scale of forecasting, there are:

a) development forecasting separate industry(for example, animal husbandry). At the same time, trends and patterns of its development as a whole, as well as individual sub-sectors (for example, dairy and beef animal husbandry), are revealed. Independently builds a forecast for the development of the industry in the territorial context;
b) simultaneous forecasting of several interrelated industries (for example, the forecast of the food industry includes forecasts for tea-packing, confectionery, bakery, pasta, cereals, etc.).
c) simultaneous forecasting of all sectors within the country's sectoral complex (for example, forecasting the agro-industrial complex).

in each scientific discipline, forecasting is carried out on different periods time and therefore for each of them the gradation in the lead period should be different. closest to political forecasts is the classification of forecasts adopted in the economy, where there are short-term (up to 1 year), medium-term (up to 5 years) and long-term (over 5 years) forecasts

Forecasting methods and their role in social management

Allocate normative and search forecasting.

Normative forecasting is a projection into the future of the original model in accordance with the given goals and norms according to the given criteria. Search forecast - a forecast, the content of which is to determine the possible states of the object of forecasting in the future.

The forecasting methods are as follows.

Extrapolation is the extension of trends established in the past to the future.

Modeling - the study of objects of knowledge on their models; construction and study of models of real-life objects, processes or phenomena in order to obtain explanations of these phenomena, as well as to predict phenomena of interest to the researcher.

Expert evaluation is a procedure for obtaining an assessment of a problem based on a group opinion of specialists (experts). The joint opinion is more accurate than the individual opinion of each of the specialists.

The scenario method is one of the possible implementations of the situational approach to decision making in an organization. The method is based on a systematic methodological concept and is an iterative research procedure for constructing scenarios organized in a certain way in order to select the most appropriate control alternative. A scenario is a description of a picture of the future, consisting of coordinated, logically interconnected events and a sequence of steps leading with a certain probability to a predictable final state.

Most often in forecasting in the managerial activity of the sphere social protection, education, healthcare, housing and communal services, the extrapolation method and scenario methods are used.

Stages of predictive research.

The first stage is a qualitative assessment (a trend is predicted - decline, rise, deviation from the median equilibrium point in one direction or another, etc.).

The second stage is the development of a quantitative forecast, and, first, in the form of an interval, and then a point estimate. Further, such a sequence of execution of calculations is used, which allows deploying prognostic studies - from more general to more specific.

The third stage is the final forecast based on multi-aspect methods for checking the reliability of the forecast results.